A Dynamic Dual Process Model of Intertemporal Choice
Speaker: Adele Diederich, Prof. Dr.
Dual process theories of decision making describe choice as the product of an automatic System 1, which is quick to activate but behaves impulsively, and a deliberative System 2, which is slower to activate but makes decisions in a rational and controlled manner. However, most existent dual process theories are not mathematically specified, and thus do not generate testable qualitative and quantitative predictions. For intertemporal choices, notable exceptions have been proposed by Fudenberg & Levine (2006) and Loewenstein et al. (2015). None of them provide a formal specification regarding the dynamics of the interplay of the two systems. The here proposed dynamic dual process model takes this into account; it makes precise predictions regarding choice probability and response time distributions. Using simulation studies, I illustrate how different factors (timing of System 1, time constraint, preferences construction functions in both systems, and architecture) influence model predictions. The modelling framework provides a mathematical approach that may bring novel insights regarding the processes underlying intertemporal choices.
Prof. Dr. Heinz Beck Institute of Experimental Epileptology and Cognition Research Life and Brain Center University of Bonn Medical Center Sigmund-Freud Str. 25 53127 Bonn
Contact:
Prof. Dr. Heinz Beck Institute of Experimental Epileptology and Cognition Research Life and Brain Center University of Bonn Medical Center Sigmund-Freud Str. 25 53127 Bonn
Contact:
Prof. Dr. Heinz Beck Institute of Experimental Epileptology and Cognition Research Life and Brain Center University of Bonn Medical Center Sigmund-Freud Str. 25 53127 Bonn